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Prediction for CME (2024-08-01T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-01T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32420/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an M8.2 flare and eruption from Active Region 13768 (S15W80) starting around 2024-08-01T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible in GOES SUVI 171, 195, and 284 imagery at this time as well. Arrival: there is a clear ICME arrival signatures with a shock (according to analysis by the LASSOS team (Carlos Perez Alanis). During the shock B total reaches 19.5 nT and density gets increased to 20p/cc, followed by a period of significant negative Bz reaching -17nT. This signature of ICME shock is preceded by a less clear disturbance in the magnetic field at L1 with Btotal increasing from 8nT at 2024-08-04T04:48Z to 15nT at 06:11Z followed by a protracted period of negative Bz.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-04T13:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-03T12:02Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-01 10:49
 - Time at C2: 2024-08-01 07:24
 - Radial speed: 1100.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 50 deg
 - Eruption location: N07W50
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 736.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-03 12:02 (i.e. predicted transit time: 52.65 hours)
Lead Time: 61.52 hour(s)
Difference: 25.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-08-01T23:50Z
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